Chris's Corner

COVID 19 Speed

When we think about Covid-19, do you wonder the speed of how many people are getting infected? Some will think about exponential functions. Looks like it is spreading exponentially, but it is only for a moment. If the function was like f(t)=2^t (t, day), everyone would definitely get infected, cause the velocity would definitely be 2^t*ln2. The most precise answer would be piecewise function. Right now in China and Korea the rate of change of amount of infectants to time is decreasing. 

We would use 10 countries that have Covid-19 infectants.  

Country 21-03 22-03 dI/dt
China 81,054 81,093 39
Italy 53,578 59,138 5,560
USA 23,710 32,761 9,051
Spain 25,496 29,909 4,413
Germany 16,662 18,610 1,948
Iran 20,610 21,638 1,028
France 14,459 16,689 2,230
South Korea 8,897 8,961 64
Switzerland 6,747 7,014 267
UK 5,018 5,683 665

Average: 2,418.5people/day

Country dI/dt Maximum
China 15,152
Italy 6,557
USA 9,339
Spain 4,946
Germany 4,062
Iran 1,411
France 1,861
South Korea 1,062
Switzerland 1,378
UK 1,035

Average: 4,675.3people/day

According to the graph, 2,419 people get infected per day. As more people get infected, more cases will be reported. Graphically, it is similar to exponential function, and then it becomes similar to logarithm function. We all have to be careful from COVID-19. 


Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button